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So I finally got down to trying out the driverless taxis in Shenzhen. Autonomous driving isn’t new in China, but large-scale deployment is still in its early stages. So it is no surprise that these cars are a common sight in Nanshan, Shenzhen--a district often dubbed as China’s ‘Silicon Valley’ for its concentration of rising tech stars and its well developed infrastructure.. Ordering a driverless vehicle is similar to using a Didi so there is no real learning curve here. The robotaxi that I got was a Gen-Y L4 SUV from Pony AI. Gen-7 refers to the software version installed on the car (which happens to be the latest) while L4 refers to the SAE standards of autonomous driving which currently is one notch below the highest level. Once your ride is confirmed, the app immediately prompts you to make your way to the pick-up point. Pick-ups are limited to designated locations, so passengers must walk to a nearby point. A quick app verification takes place when the car arrives.. Unlike the traditional cars where you have to manually open the doors, the door in this case is unlocked via Bluetooth. Upon getting into the car, a virtual assistant greets you and reminds you to fasten your seatbelt. Unlike traditional taxis, there’s no driver to verify your booking— you just press ‘start’ on the rear dashboard. The car locks automatically and pulls away smoothly, much like a human driver. Inside the car, there are various options for customizing your ride from adjusting the temperature of the aircon, adjusting the seats and playing music. No need to ask the "driver" to do all that although I suspect one of the upgrades in newer versions will incorporate voice control. User interface in the passenger back seat. On the driver's dashboard, you can also view a 3D schematic of the surroundings on a digital screen. Using sensors and GPS data, the robotaxi maps its surroundings in real time. The driver dashboard. During the 15-minute ride, the car executed a careful three-point turn on a narrow road, avoiding an oncoming truck and jaywalking pedestrians. It overtook vehicles smoothly, handled blind spots, and navigated a busy right turn while yielding to pedestrians and delivery riders at a zebra crossing. All this while, no driver or passer-by stopped to stare at the vehicle I was in despite the fact that there was no one in the driving seat. It almost felt as if a driverless car on the road was commonplace in everyday life. "Look, no hands!" At one busy junction, I even saw another car applying the emergency brakes just to avoid colliding with a pedestrian who had suddenly dashed out of nowhere onto the road to beat the yellow light. There were no angry horns, no winding down of windows to a driver that would unleash a mouthful of hell, and no road rage. Maybe no one had flinched except for me. It was only seconds later that I realized that the car didn't even have a human driver in it. And everyone around was just going about their own business, treating the robotaxi like another normal vehicle. Other than that, most of my trip had been relatively uneventful, especially without the occasional banter of a talkative taxi driver. When I had reached my destination, the car made sure to come to a full stop, disabled the door locks and reminded me to look out for oncoming traffic when I got out. And then it went off on its own, just like any ordinary taxi. Given the complexities and unpredictability of traffic on the roads, the entire process was actually overall well-executed. Interestingly, the entire ride came up to only CNY 20 (CNY 10 if you include the 'welcome' voucher). You can see how this roughly compares with the same ride with a conventional Didi. The case for replacing the driver at the wheel based on these economics seems very viable. Unlike a human driver, autonomous driving has more than one pair of watchful eyes on the road and does not suffer from fatigue. Blind spots are significantly reduced, thereby minimizing the probability of road accidents. Also with the continuous acquisition of traffic data, the algorithms should get increasingly familiar with the roads and learn from its surroundings. There is no need to train a new driver on his first day at work. All it takes is a software upgrade and a new car is ready to go. Of course, there is also the social narrative which involves potentially displacing the entire gig economy of nearly ten million ride-hailing drivers and their livelihoods. Given that we are now already at L4, this trend seems inevitable. But there are also real limitations as to how far technology can go. For starters, if you are heading to the airport with a load of baggage, you now have no one to help you with loading it into the boot. Not that this is a deal breaker but it would be nice to have an extra pair of hands. For the disabled community, getting on and off an autonomous car can pose a serious challenge especially if they are getting around on their own. Ultimately, we will probably still need some real drivers on the road--the same way banks still require counter staff to process certain transactions that cannot be done either at the ATM or through digital banking. As time passes, human drivers will likely be a minority rather than the norm. Nevertheless, I am looking forward to seeing more driverless cars on our roads soon.

In 1990, a psychologist quoted in the New York Times  reported that people “ turn on the TV when they feel sad, lonely, upset or worried, and they need to distract themselves from their troubles. ” Another psychologist also said: “People who watch too much television from childhood grow up with a deprived fantasy life. For them, watching television substitutes for their own imagination.” How the phenomenon above has impacted our lifestyles and wellbeing is not new. Way back in the 1930s, a sociologist named Herbert Blumer published a paper titled “ Movies and Conduct ”. The observations from the research suggested that content shown on television and in the movies shape not only how young people interact socially, but also their attitudes to life and also how they choose to groom themselves. Although it was done decades ago, it isn't that different from how social media impacts our behavior and thinking today. Naturally, the adverse side-effects from watching too much TV made people start to moderate and minimize their "TV time". But did we stop watching the television and reading the news? Watching the television (much like browsing the Web on our mobile devices today) has been a significant part in our lives for a long time. In any interior design mock-up, the TV is almost always part of the living room. For many people, it might even be considered odd not to have one in the house. Not only was the TV an important part of the decor, it also enabled us to receive up-to-date information and news from around the world. And if you think about it, the time spent facing the screen in the old days isn't very different from we are indulging in Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Tik Tok in present day. With the Internet, those same feelings of deprivation, loneliness and worry are simply just manifested in different ways. In a similar way, the online ads that show up on our mobile devices technically aren’t that different from the conventional paper advertisements and billboards that we see on the sidewalks and highways. Every advert out there - online or offline - is reaching out to you and saying something, in hopes that they’ll eventually change your mind and perception on something: “don’t use their product, use ours, we are better.”, “do this, don’t do that.”, “Do the right thing, invest in your wellbeing.”, “Vote for us, make the right choice” . Can you blame the companies for putting out the advertisements that led you to buy their product? Were you under duress to act? Did you not have a choice? Newspapers have been around since the 17th century, and television since the 1920s. In the same way, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and many other apps are probably also going to stay around for a very long time. Like it or not, these will become the norm for how anyone with a decent Internet connection will stay connected with the rest of the world. Along with that, our thoughts, our perspectives and bias on various topics will also continue to be shaped by them, the same way TV, movies and print advertisements have shaped civilisation since the early 1900s. Media, in its various forms, new or old, will always be a tool for commercial and political propaganda. We can choose to extricate from this dilemma by renouncing all social media, but one thing for sure is that we are ultimately responsible for how we let them influence the way we think.

To understand and decide whether bitcoin is a good store of value, let's consider other classes of assets such as real estate and commodities. Take for instance real estate . I remember hearing folks talk about property being a good store of value and something that has that ability to stand the test of time. In some ways that is probably true. Real estate has not only been able to hold its value but is also an instrument that has proven to deliver returns through generating rental income or appreciate in value steadily over time. Within Asia, real estate has not only demonstrated resilience through the up and down cycles, but also been a beneficiary of the economic prosperity of the regional economic titans such as China, Japan, Korea, as well as Southeast Asia. A rising tide lifts all boats. That trend still holds true to a certain extent today. Property is still pretty much the go-to choice for many investors flushed with cash and those in search of a relatively safe-haven especially during a recession . People continue to trade and invest in real estate because fundamentally, they know that a roof over the head is a basic foundation of life at least based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Residential property is also somewhat a good proxy to the overall global economic cycle. A resilient jobs economy encourages home ownership, driving up property values. Although its initial investment outlay can be high, real estate is also relatively liquid . Liquidity in valuation, is a metric that tends to be overlooked. In layman terms, this loosely translates to how easy it is for an asset to change hands. You can list your second-hand car for a million dollars on Carousell , but at the end of the day, it's still worth nothing if it can't be sold. The price of a share in a company is only as real as how much others are willing to pay for it, not how much you want to sell it for. Furthermore, liquidity is also driven by the availability of buyers and sellers, and also shaped by the perception of the broader market. All things considered, we can assume that property, as an asset class, remains still highly regarded amongst investors as the go-to asset class for investment. Now let's consider lab-grown diamonds. " A diamond is valuable only because people say it is, not because of its clarity or cut. " Jewelers and advertising companies around the world have done an extremely successful job in positioning the diamond at the apex of all precious stones. But the raw material for diamond is carbon - one of the most commonly available elements found on earth, ranked many times above gold, silver and platinum. Yet despite being available in relatively large quantities, consumers continue to pay absurd amounts of money for a small rock mounted on a ring or co-joined in a necklace. To add to the paradox, lab-grown diamonds are significantly cheaper than their natural counterparts, even though they share the exact same properties and make. In fact, according to this website : If you buy a lab-created diamond, you’d have a beautiful stone, yet no jeweler will buy it back . So, what can we learn about the value of bitcoin from real estate and precious stones? There's much talk of late about bitcoin being a store of value . I know very little about the world of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies - only limited to the banter that I read on Twitter and the news. Is bitcoin a good store of value? Just like property, gold and other precious stones, bitcoin can be considered somewhat a safe haven asset as much as others deem it to be. In this case, the erosion in value (and faith) of the dollar could be one of the key catalysts behind the value of bitcoin. Investors buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies because they have lost faith in fiat currency. Traders of bitcoin expect that one day, the guy over the counter of a McDonalds or convenience store will accept a bitcoin or cryptocurrency-equivalent as a valid form of payment in exchange for goods and services. Far out as it might sound, but for a billionaire or any large investor sitting on heaps of cash, this translates to a possible devaluation of their cash holdings. i.e. cash as we know it today, might one day be no longer king if crypto-currencies were to take over. I think that crypto-exchanges were created largely because of this reason. Crypto-currency platforms are only viable and commercial if there is a sizeable market for trading. This implies that there has to be a significantly large pool of investors willing to kickstart the initiative and make the market so to speak. This is similar to early stock exchanges which were created to provide an avenue for companies to raise capital, and also an alternative gateway for investors looking to put their money to work. While people are comfortable with buying and selling shares, there is still a huge inertia is driving a paradigm shift in financial markets to accept bitcoin, inertia likened to re-inventing the wheel. There's a reason why successive versions of Microsoft Windows in its early days were so slow and buggy. We can blame the limitations of hardware and software but the reality is that having to re-write a software for the world from scratch is simply too lengthy and costly. Why demolish and re-build something that is already selling even with some occasional bugs and flaws? Far easier it is to patch the errors than to re-invent the wheel. So our existing financial system is not perfect. Market players are rigging interest rates, manipulating currencies and stocks, and laundering money. But the reality is that the paper currency since its inception a thousand years ago still works as a go-to medium for the exchange of goods and services. To revamp today's highly complex financial system using bitcoin or any crypto-alternative would simply take too much work involving several iterations of monetary reforms, even an astronomical " reset " on the global system, sending us all back to the barter economy. Just as how asset values move in cycle with the economy, bitcoin will probably follow the same trajectory. However we belittle cash, there are many commodities and asset classes out there which still serve as good alternatives to what we define as a "store of value". Bitcoin at the moment is only but just one of them.

The last few weeks had been a huge tailspin for me. I attribute it to the multitude of challenges compounded upon each other - first, the physical distancing barrier, then the business-cultural aspect of it and then the technicalities of the underlying business. To add on, while investment and banking is not unfamiliar to me, the work of public relations and investor relations remains uncharted territory. Perhaps the biggest difference is that the mindset that one takes into any job, any role, any engagement. Never take on a job purely because of money . This might be one of the most important starting points in terms of getting the right mindset. Money is of course important but the experience of taking on the engagement should enable you to grow as a person, forge new relationships, learn new things that you never knew before, and naturally add to your professional credentials. To add on: Never switch jobs solely because the pay on the other side is higher. The "intangible assets" that you give up from making that move might cost you a lot more in the future. Never wear your designation / rank like a "political shield" or a "badge of honor", and let it get in the way of what you should be saying and doing. Most of the people that I know like to flaunt their status of being a VP, Director or being in C-suite roles. That kind of ego wears off fast when things go bad. The ability to be hands-on and execute will eventually outlive ego. Never stop moving or learning. Towards the ending scenes in the movie, The Martian , Matt Damon (as Mark Watney the astronaut) talks to a class at NASA saying: "At some point, everything's gonna go south on you and you're going to say, this is it. This is how I end. Now you can either accept that, or you can get to work. That's all it is. You just begin. You do the math. You solve one problem and you solve the next one, and then the next. And If you solve enough problems, you get to come home." He didn't survive the journey back home by squatting in space, flaunting his celebrity status as an astronaut and griping about how people back on earth could have done better in trying to rescue him. Whether it is a Fortune 500 company, a small medium enterprise or a start up, the foundational principle of any organization is just to "get things done." A true entrepreneur - whether running his/her own business or working in someone else's organization - doesn't care about pride or rank. He/she just cares about getting the job done and getting paid for it. Unfortunately, most people out there aren't entrepreneurs, so excuses such as not being paid enough or avoiding assignments outside their work scope becomes the common excuse. And for all the people out there who think that they are "too senior" to be hands-on or doing grunt work: I still take a lot of pride in being able to build a three-statement financial model from scratch. I consistently do this during the classes that I teach at SMU and remind everyone that it is really not that difficult . If you refrain from revisiting the basics every now and then just because you think you are "too senior" to be working on models, you are going to regret it much later on in life with that kind of mentality. Keep telling yourself that you are too good or qualified for any job or you should be getting more credit for your work and you'll also find yourself in a lot of trouble when you get older.

As an investment banker I used to work very long hours (and I still do) and we were almost always allowed to be reimbursed for dinner and transport expenses if we worked past a certain time (usually 9:00pm). Some times I would claim for these expenses, but other times I would not. And people found that puzzling. As I grew older and stayed longer in the office, I discovered that some of the most simple pleasures at the end of a hard day’s work was simply just to take a 10-minute stroll away from the office or use the public commute back home, enjoying the outdoor air in the process. Taking the taxi on the other hand constantly nauseated me because of the enclosure and motion. It was partly because of that, I did not usually claim for any transportation reimbursement. Likewise for meals and per diem allowances: Unless absolutely necessary such as dining with professional parties such as clients as part of the job, I would then claim for these meals. But I know of people who would go the full length to obtain all recoverable expenses as long as it was within the organisation’s HR policy. There’s nothing technically wrong with that. The rules that were set that way by the folks up there are also the same rules that are part of broader staff retention strategy, that is: To keep employees happy and contented so that they know they are well fed and taken care off. It was only in my later years in banking that I realised making these claims were also a deeper cultivation of a subtle employee-mentality . By attempting to ‘milk’ the system and extract the maximum benefits, one subjects himself/herself to the dependency on the little privileged comforts of life. There’s nothing wrong with that, in fact I believe the banks wanted you to do that. In Nassim Taleb’s words: “Someone who has been employed for a while is giving you strong evidence of submission. Evidence of submission is displayed by the employee’s going through years depriving himself of his personal freedom for nine hours every day, his ritualistic and punctual arrival at an office, his denying himself his own schedule, and his not having beaten up anyone on the way back home after a bad day. He is an obedient, housebroken dog.” So should one day I am unable to afford the ‘luxury’ of going home in a cab or rely on someone to pay for my meals, I would never feel insecure.

A copy of the bible can often be found in the drawer of the bedside cabinet in most hotels. Like most travelers, I casually ignore this, partly because I don't have any affinity for the bible, but also because I tend to overlook and treat it as part of the hotel room fittings (apologies to the folks at Gideon International ). So as I was searching for some writing material in my Marriott hotel room in Shanghai, instead of a bible, I stumbled upon a book titled " Spirit to Serve - Our Stories" . The book basically showcased the lives and experiences of various hotel employees from all over the world, each summarized with a caption and a 1 to 2 page writeup. I am not usually fond of reading corporate marketing material but ended up flipping through the pages. Inside were interesting stories about Marriott's employees - from hotel managers, room attendants, concierge staff, chefs to butlers and bellboys / bellmen. One of those stories included a head bartender who moved from Cambodia to Washington DC more than 30 years ago and he described how many memorable friendships were forged with the returning guests. There was also a story about a mother of four and how she juggled work at the hotel and family time at home. I found many of these stories intriguing and ended up going through most of them. Towards the end of the book, I came across this afterword which I thought was quite meaningful and that it should have been placed right up front: The Twelve Rules of Success Continually challenge your team to do better. Take good care of your employees, and they'll take good care of your customers, and the customers will come back. Celebrate your people's successes, not your own. Know what you're good at and mine those competencies for all you're worth. Do it and do it now. Err on the side of taking action. Communicate. Listen to your customers, associates and competitors. See and be seen. Get out of your office, walk around, make yourself visible and accessible. Success is in the details. It's more important to hire people with the right qualities than with specific experience. Customer needs may vary, but their bias for quality never does. Eliminate the cause of a mistake. Don't just clean it up. View every problem as an opportunity to grow. I have stayed at my hotel in Hong Kong for nearly three years now. Truth be told, the guest-facing staff hasn't changed that much. In fact, most of them recognise me, even if I had gone on an overseas trip for a long time and haven't been back for weeks. I know this because they always pass me my courier packages as soon as they see me step in through the main lobby entrance. In fact, some time back, I heard that it is quite common to see hotel employees working with the same hotel for more than twenty years. I don't think many of them are paid top dollar, and the skills for the service industry are somewhat transferrable. On the contrary, for many white-collared jobs, it is relatively more commonplace to see people moving around only after a few years. So it got me thinking: Assuming we say that Marriott is a successful brand / corporation, if it's not about the money, then what keeps these people working at the same place for years and even decades? Is there a hidden incentive scheme that I am unaware of? Or is it the familiarity of the environment? The social support that comes with forging familial relationships with colleagues? A genuine sense of satisfaction from a customer service role? A good line manager? Or is it mostly just a lack of better options out there? For corporations that are religiously fixated on pursuing performance and the bottom-line results, have they sacrificed some aspects of their corporate branding and employee loyalty in the process of being successful? "Today's analysts will be tomorrow's managers. Today's managers will be tomorrow's Vice Presidents. Today's Vice Presidents will be tomorrow's CEOs and business owners."

In the last couple of years, Hong Kong had remained relatively “closed” to the rest of the world. Once a vibrant city home to conferences and events, I think the city is bearing the brunt on the psychological and commercial front from reduced travel globally. No one is making plans to get in, unless it was home. This was favorable from the perspective of a traveller as accommodation prices once considered to be incredibly high for Hong Kong, had plummeted significantly. I had never given much consideration towards the amount of rent paid only until recently. As most of the world opens up, the return of overseas travel has led to steadily increasing airfares and hotel rates. When I returned to Hong Kong this year, I discovered that the lease on my place had gone up by about 30%. Last year had been a tough period for Hong Kong. 14-day quarantines, tourist inflows from China taking a hit while businesses and residents were relocating away. So this year, with the anticipation of the world re-opening up, I foresee that prices will continue to increase into next year. When I graduated from university, I had been one of the lucky ones that did not have to worry about paying the rent on my apartment. After amassing enough savings over 3 to 4 years, I made that decision to buy an apartment rather than renting one. Renting had never really been a consideration for me, maybe because being a resident in my own country, home ownership was the de facto option. Or at least it was so until I moved to Hong Kong last year. From an economical standpoint, owning a place and servicing the mortgage payments work pretty much in the same way as rent with a few key differences. Both rent and mortgage service are cash expenses, but the behavioural psychology behind paying the mortgage every month can be quite different from rent. With regular mortgage payments, one takes some comfort in home ownership , knowing that your equity position generally improves with every month of debt repaid (assuming the value of your home doesn’t go down). Property has generally been accepted to be a good store of value. While interest rates on a home loan can be as brutal as paying rent, with rent, cash out flow is basically a one way street. A sunk expense with no return on investment. Rents remain much more sensitive to sudden price spikes driven by abrupt changes in supply and demand. Interest rates can be volatile but are insulated against market forces as the mortgage payments are largely priced and sized on your income. To add on, it can be difficult to call a rented place home, especially if you do not have long term visibility of staying in that city. This uncertainty leads to a great deal of inertia when it comes to upgrading your living conditions. Therefore, to an immigrant, the bottom line is everything i.e. the less I pay in rent, the more I bring home in cash. While I consider myself middle-class and one of the more fortunate and relatively better-placed immigrants, I can totally feel what it is like to be an outsider alone in a foreign country earning a living, setting aside as much as possible every month with the end goal of going home one day.

In 2017, I had the opportunity to travel to Riyadh for the inaugural Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference. FII was the country's inaugural flagship event, orchestrated to bring in some of the largest and wealthiest investors, companies and celebrities from around the world. The crown prince spared no expense hosting this multi-day event which was aimed at roping in foreign investment and elevating the Kingdom to the global stage. It was an effective way to market a country. The event was broadcast across nearly all the business news outlets that it was coined “ Davos in the desert ” by CNBC. There are many similar versions of the FII. The APEC summit, China's Boao Forum, and the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum. In addition to rubbing shoulders with the who's who in the upper echelons of the business world, it was also an opportunity for attendees to get acquainted with the local environment and find out what the city has to offer as a destination for investment. Hong Kong had always been synonymous with some of the largest financial conferences in the region. Coined as the "gateway" to China, the city boasts of a highly efficient transport infrastructure, conducive for business travelers from all over the world to stop by for a few days of meetings. No one needs to plan ahead to be in Hong Kong. Hundreds of flights arrive and depart the city every day. An efficient customs clearance and a high-speed train connecting the airport to the city centre in 20 minutes, means that one can get in the morning and fly out at night. Work aside, there was always something to do in town: Bars, cultural festivals, concerts, business conferences, good food and shopping. Hong Kong is so cosmopolitan that there would almost always be an occasion for business meetings in the city. Almost every company with a meaningful global presence in Asia has an outpost in Hong Kong. At one point of time the city was even leading the charge in technology, convening the " most brilliant minds in international tech " at the annual RISE conference , a must-go event for any company that wants to make a serious impact to the tech scene in Asia. But there is less reason to get into Hong Kong today. Aside from the fact that many companies and conferences have shifted away, a string of covid testing procedures awaits visitors upon arrival at the airport. Compared to the past, getting into Hong Kong today has become a meticulously curated trip for many travelers. Despite efforts by the new HK chief executive to address the current state of affairs in the city at the recent inaugural policy address , people seemed to have somewhat lost confidence in what the future holds. To stem the further outflow of companies and talent, the government had also in recent months very publicly unveiled a high-level banking summit to host the titans of finance back in its city center. Despite this initiative, inbound quarantine measures and restrictive health monitoring continue to weigh. I can understand why Riyadh might need an event like the FII to showcase itself to the world, but I never expected or imagined that Hong Kong would need to do the same. The fact that the city now has to bring out the big guns to advertise itself reveals how much the economic environment had deteriorated over the last few years. But aside from the recent exodus of companies and talent, the debt and equities market in Hong Kong has basically also dried up . It used to be commonplace for investors to get rich in Hong Kong's capital markets. The city has enjoyed much success in being the go-to destination for businesses and equities market largely attributed to its proximity to China. The sheer size of the Chinese market and depth of liquidity in Hong Kong drives a tremendous amount of brokerage, trading and research coverage, which in turn drums up more investor awareness and draws in more capital for companies. As such, the Hong Kong Exchange has had an impressive track record of being home to numerous companies across many industries that offer the possibility of making shareholders incredibly wealthy through a dramatic increase in their market values. This is unlike its close neighbour Singapore, which is traditionally known for its sleepy equities market more suited to those searching for stable returns and wealth preservation. In order to maintain its leading role as an IPO destination for Asia, the Hong Kong exchange had also initiated waiving revenue requirement for tech IPOs in an effort to revive the IPO market. But we are treading a fine line here: Once we start lowering benchmarks and compromising on the quality of companies such as waiving revenue requirements (in the case of tech IPOs), things can start to get dangerous if investors question the credibility of companies that list in Hong Kong. And if we are not careful, this shift could end up being permanent and structural. Singapore is the classic example of how efforts in positioning itself as a listing hub has proved relatively futile. Its tie-up with NASDAQ and Tel Aviv has been questionable, none of which has produced any tangible results. Even, the newly launched SPAC framework, which was very likely meant to be an avenue for venture capital firms and early tech investors to cash out, has yet to bear any fruits with only three listings to date. This of which could be partially attributed to a soft global equities market. It's a slippery slope for Hong Kong from here. It never really needed to sell itself as a prime destination or lower its standards in order to attract the influx of capital and large companies. Maybe not until recently and only time will tell if the right decisions have been made to steer the city amidst the uncertain winds of change.

Remember how people used to queue for Hello Kitty toys at McDonalds? Consider this: You are queueing in line for that limited edition item and suddenly realize that it'll be sold out by the time it reaches you. The thought of walking away empty-handed drives you to think of other ways, including negotiating with the folks in front of you. But everyone respects the unwritten rule of the queue - first-come-first-served , get in line and wait for your turn. Desperate and frantic, you decide to go bat-crap crazy and threaten to burn the whole store down if you don't get your toy, putting the entire queue and McDonalds store in jeopardy. Suddenly the store manager comes over to appease you, bringing you to the front of the queue, effectively guaranteeing a reward for your troubles. Make enough noise, create enough damage and you'll get something. For years, practitioners in the industry have been taught, have understood, and have accepted that equity holders stand behind debt holders in the queue to redeem cash flows of a business. These are the rules of the game relating to the priority of how cash in a business would be distributed, if and when assets are being liquidated. It's a basic principle codified in financial markets theory. But that rule seemed to have changed forever when Credit Suisse decided to write off a huge chunk of their AT1 debt last week and facilitate any residual payments to shareholders. Senior debt letting common equity know who's in charge [Source: Twitter] "Protectionism, geopolitical self-interest and state intervention, in other words, seem to have over-ruled free-market principles." - Financial T imes By allowing the "free market principles" to take reign and go its natural course, the Swiss government runs the risk of embarrassing a certain influential Middle Eastern shareholder who recently invested in Credit Suisse, and in the process, taking the rap for the bank's current state of affairs. Investors and onlookers would ask, " why bother even doing a capital raise in the first place only to write it all off within months? ". There would be a crisis of confidence in management, possibly wider overhanging doubts over stability in the region, including the country's position as a global wealth management hub. And then no one would put money in Switzerland anymore, a cost possibly too high for the government to bear. When the reputation of your country is at stake, all concepts of equity and debt gets thrown out of the window. Bottomline: Rather than adhere by the rules governing capitalist theory, it is far better to offend those who can afford to be offended than to risk a systemic meltdown. Of course extreme situations call for extreme measures. Under the normal course of business, every one is happy to stand in line and play by the rules. Decent wages for decent work, a fair share of the pie for a fair amount of effort invested. Most investors who walk into a share agreement try not to think too much about a material adverse outcome. But when the house is on fire, everything is up for grabs and all stakeholders - equity and debt - will scramble for the exit. I think the uncomfortable truth today, that no one talks about explicitly, is that: rather than fight a war using conventional arms, political decision-makers around the world have found a way to weaponise the workings of financial markets and monetary policies to drive their own agendas, in the process distorting how we perceive value. Any country in world can 'own' another country by simply imposing trade sanctions, ridiculous tariffs, and in extreme cases, confiscate assets - assuming one country is heavily reliant on the other for the import of certain critical goods and services. By creating dependency, you are weakening the bargaining power of the other party, and lesser bargaining power generally comes with lower value. Nassim Taleb also talks about this in his book under the section: " How to legally own a person ": "Every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom. How do you own these people? First, by conditioning and psychological manipulation; second, by tweaking them to have some skin in the game, forcing them to have something significant to lose if they disobey authority—something hard to do with gyrovague beggars who flout their scorn for material possessions. In the orders of the mafia, things are simple: made men (that is, ordained) can be whacked if the capo suspects a lack of allegiance, with a transitory stay in the trunk of a car—and a guaranteed presence of the boss at their funerals. For other professions, skin in the game comes in more subtle forms." For good or for bad, sovereign risk has become even more closely intertwined with equity risk. When you buy a stock or a bond, it is no longer as simple as taking a view on profitability, future cash flows and room for improvements, but also the strategic importance of a company's position in the ecosystem. DCF does not capture all of that. In fact, no amount of number crunching and analysis allow for an accurate appraisal of any company's fair value today, primarily because the free market is no longer free. Instead of willing buyer, willing seller, markets today are to a good extent, influenced by statecraft, driven by the common interests of various governments. The treatment of Credit Suisse's AT1 bonds has also further demonstrated and reinforced how loosely-held and trivial the definition of equity and debt can be when push comes to shove. For what it is worth (as it has always been), value will forever be driven by the willingness of another party to take the asset off your hands at their own free will.

I have never been much of a waterfront-living type of person, but the view of the Victoria harbour can be quite addictive. Quiet mornings overlooking the harbour are some of my most enjoyable moments over the weekends in Hong Kong. I realised recently that for a lot of companies out there, it's actually the season of promotions . For a number of friends whom I've known for some time and who were newly minted, I'm truly happy for them. Those that I have been acquainted with on a more personal level have all been very consistent people. Some of them came from relatively humble beginnings, either from totally unrelated backgrounds or started off in companies that practically had no bragging rights when you showed up at social events. A lot of them were hungry for technical skills and deal experience, and wanted to acquire these in the course of their work. Technical skills were important as juniors, but I think what made them stand out were often the softer aspects: the ability to make friends, staying in touch, knowing how to navigate politics at the workplace, or just having the ability to survive in an environment with repeated rounds of layoffs and corporate re-organisations. Looking back on more than 17 years of being in the workforce, you realise that consistency and patience are sometimes all highly under-rated attributes. That said, success means different things to everyone. I think that most consider landing a promotion, a big bonus payout, being publicly recognised or associated with someone reputable or distinguished in their field, the hallmarks of success. Being appreciated and recognised at the workplace is being important. The need for career progression has also been deeply inculcated as part of "life after graduation", especially for those who have had the privilege of going to school. No matter which it was, it mostly all came down to being able to accumulate more money, and so, all of success seems to come down to that moment of glory and the wealth that accompanies it. But the most valuable form of wealth is not having to impress anyone. Social comparison is the biggest culprit of dissatisfaction. See, because not everything can be measured in dollars and cents. The same way not everything is measured in terms of lofty positions and titles, or material possessions. Also, I learned recently that more important than getting rich is how to stay rich. A good number of people I know earn an average or less-than-average income and stay in very humble houses. In theory, they should be worse off when compared to those who are earning a lot more. But many of them are "doing well" simply because they didn't take excessive risk with their money, stayed consistent and perhaps well-grounded in their material expectations. Most of all, I think they stayed contented . "At your highest moment, be careful, that’s when the devil comes for you." This was what Denzel Washington said to Will Smith after his notorious outburst on Chris Rock at the Oscars in 2022. Although Will Smith won an award that night, he was subsequently banned from the Academy events for the next ten years. Today’s success story can very quickly turn into tomorrow’s failure. At any point of time, nothing is ever so good or bad as it seems.

It just goes to show that even seemingly intelligent humans, when desperate, gullible and possibly even bored enough, will believe nearly everything you tell them and to some extent, resort to illogical behaviour to get what they want. When something good or bad happens, we lean towards seeking answers retrospectively. We look logically for these answers by re-tracing the steps and putting together the pieces leading up to the events that take place. There is usually a connection between the cause and effect. For example, “ he is so small and thin today because he didn’t eat well when he was younger ”, or “ he works in a mediocre job now because he didn’t study hard in school then ”.  Conversely, we make the subsequent conclusions in nearly every aspect of our day to day lives, for example: Studying harder maximises your probability of getting good results ; or: working harder increases your probability of doing well later in life . But whenever the science and logic fails us and things don’t go according to plan, we fall back on, or turn to the spiritual side of things. Humans seek comfort in rationalising stuff that happens to them, both the good ones and bad ones, but especially the bad ones. Hence, the existence of the avocado bell curve god,  drinking water mixed with the ashes of books, and the wearing of good luck charms, gods in other forms, amongst others. The truth is sometimes, the good and bad things that happen in life, they happen for no logical reason at all. A winning lottery ticket, contracting a deadly virus, a plane crash, bad timing when making an investment, black swan events, etc. Events that can significantly change the course of one's life . Life is a lot simpler when we start to make peace with  the things around us, rather than try to make sense of the things the happen around us. “We are so good at justifying things to avoid our deepest fears. That is one trick the mind is really good at.” - Alicia Cramer

Some weeks ago in Shenzhen, I got into the back seat of a taxi, and to my surprise, found the driver watching a douyin video of an influencer speaking in Chinese and then narrating the same phrase again in English. Apparently it was a video that taught viewers how to speak the English language. I have been teaching financial modelling for over 5 years now. But at the first ever class held in July 2018, the delivery was so badly curated that it was clumsy and in my opinion somewhat even embarrassing. I had spent weeks preparing for it, assembling a deck of over 500 slides. In those slides were numerous case studies and valuable content which I had amassed from over 10 years of corporate finance experience. It was by some measure, a work of art . Yet, in spite of those, I received possibly the lowest rating ever for a financial modelling course. Someone in the class even openly remarked, " how can anyone teach financial modelling like that?? " Turns out that being a teacher and a practitioner can be two vastly different things. Being good in your trade does not imply that you are good at transferring that trade knowledge . Having years of industry experience does not necessarily mean that you are a good teacher. Even good teachers need training regardless of their age and background. Just as some aspects of your job sometimes needs to be re-learned or upgraded. I recently gave a one-hour workshop on business and corporate finance in Hong Kong to a group of university undergraduates from the Guangzhou Huashang College (广州华商学院). The workshop was part of a three-day immersion program to get the students acquainted with the prospects of working or studying overseas. The flow of the workshop was basically the same content I had been doing over and over again for the last five years at SMU, condensed into a sixty-minute session, and further watered down for an audience with basically little to no working experience. The catch was that everything was to be done in Chinese , which put me at risk of being reduced to a babbling idiot. It might not sound like a big deal, but for me, this was the first time ever that I had to deliver a class (somewhat professionally) in a second language. Sure enough, being based in HK and Shenzhen over the last three years, I have had to communicate and present plenty in Chinese. I had also done cross-border M&A deals in China during my banking days. However, I always had the benefit of a safety net - coworkers around me who could help fill in the gaps. This was entirely different . The aftermath? Not as bad as I expected. Neither was it as smooth as I wanted it to be. But most of all, it was refreshing. The entire experience was a discovery process and a learning opportunity for them as much as it was for me. The point is: When we are in our twenties, it is conveniently easy to commit to learning. Every lead or project is seen as an opportunity to clock some mileage, hone technical skills and sharpen the sword. Practice makes perfect. There is that insatiable thirst for acquiring more knowledge, which leads to opening many doors in the future. When we move onto the thirties, that mileage elevates us to become subject matter experts, but we also become increasingly narrow and selective in terms of the assignments and projects we undertake. Beyond the thirties and into the forties, companies, shareholders and the people who hire you become more impatient and less forgiving. Results get prioritised and learning often takes a back seat. Amidst many lost opportunities and closed doors, it becomes easy to forget the enthusiasm of the twenties, easy to stop learning: Easy to stop learning a new trade, a new product or service, the workings of a whole new industry, take on a new role at work, a new way of doing things, or even a new language . As for the taxi driver in Shenzhen: If someone older than me with a presumably mediocre income and virtually no university education can bother to learn English in a largely Chinese environment, in anticipation that he might need to use it one day to communicate with his foreign passengers, what excuses do we have for not picking up a new skill when the opportunity arises? Never stop learning.

On 24 June, Singapore Airlines completed the full redemption of all its outstanding MCB (mandatory convertible bonds) that had been issued during the throes of COVID-19. This means that if you had put in money to buy those bonds in 2021, the company returns the entire sum that you had invested, with a pre-agreed premium on the investment, even if you were content to keep it to maturity and have them converted into shares. The Business Times calls this "an interesting chapter of its history". I think it's a good lesson in corporate finance and financial management, and we need more creative structuring like this in our capital markets. The premium for the final redemption works out to about 12.6%, which translates to be roughly 4.0% per year: Had SIA not followed through with the redemption, allowed you to hold those bonds, and converted the face value at S$ 4.84 per share at maturity, the IRR would be closer to 8%, depending on where you think the share price lands in 2031. Now a 4% to 8% annualised investment return over ten years may not seem like a lot if you compare it with interest rates today and also look back on how delicate things were during COVID-19. Some airlines even came close to bankruptcy during that period of time. Cost of capital was high. Buying airlines and all things travel-related were high risk investments, especially if you think about the speed at which SIA was haemorrhaging capital to the tune of S$ 8.8 billion in a year after its band aid of a rights issue in 2020. Even with sovereign underwriting from Temasek Holdings, there was simply no saying when the bleeding would stop. But ignoring the grim backdrop, a 10-year sovereign-backed corporate bond with step-up interest rates of 4 to 6% would have been a highly attractive investment, considering SOFR rates were at approximately 1.5% in 2020. The real pot at the end of the rainbow was swapping those bonds into SIA shares, in which the conversion price was at a big discount to SIA’s share price at pre-pandemic levels. After all, the prime minister had given his soft endorsement, saying that “SIA will be a great way to fly again”. How much worser could it get? What made a significant difference also was that the convertible bond offer was given exclusively to existing shareholders - a creative concoction of debt and equity. If you had missed out on the 2020 rights issue, buying SIA shares off the market would provide another window of opportunity to get in, or double down, albeit at an even lower price. And then you get the bonds as well, which ultimately increases the probability of a successful convertible bond issuance. It’s an ingenious way to market a deal. Most companies will just go on roadshows, paint a rosy picture against a hockey stick chart and promise the eventuality of brighter days ahead. But these MCBs were essentially structured as a “private club”, open only to existing investors, with a ten-year bet on the aviation sector and SIA’s reigning leadership over that period. Looking back, I think the conversion mechanics in the whole deal was arbitrary. The huge equity upside from swapping those bonds into equity at S$ 4.84 per share was probably meant to justify the low cost of debt. If you ask me, I think no one really baked in a scenario to have those bonds converted to shares. Ten years would give SIA sufficient runway to set aside capital to redeem those bonds at any time: Three years tops for the pandemic to play out and the economy to recover, plus another seven years or so to turn around. The worst case? Air travel doesn’t recover and the company’s business model becomes permanently altered. A remote possibility nevertheless, in which case, swapping those bonds into equity wouldn’t really be such a bad deal after all. [Disclaimer: I was a holder of SIA shares and its MCBs.]

Some random thoughts on hatch day. True wealth. True wealth was never about the accumulation of money but a way of life. There is no point in comparing yourself with those who work 7-day work weeks, or clock 18-hour days earning heaps of money. This applies also to those working regular hours with relatively more ‘free time’ on their hand, and who are earning a fraction of the income. “There is no universal truth in terms of what makes up a good life, only what works for you and allows you to sleep peacefully at night” - Morgan Housel Once the rain is over... Once the rain is over, an umbrella becomes a burden to everyone. That’s how quickly loyalty ends when the benefits stop. Don’t take everything too personally. A lot of what we misconstrue as friendships and good relationships tend to be mostly transactional. Don’t overshare. Not everyone wants the best for you. Privacy is power, and people can’t ruin what they don’t know. Space. Give yourself space. Sometimes all you need is a little more space to think through things and solve your problems - space to breathe, space to take a step back and more importantly, to look at the bigger picture. Nature often provides a good setting for this. Self-responsibility. You bear ultimate responsibility for everything that happens to you. They say don't be too hard on yourself. That's only because most people don't want to face up to the fact that they are responsible for everything good or bad that happens to them. Once you recognise this, you stop assigning blame and focus on just getting to the root of fixing any issues. If something doesn’t work for you, change it, or eliminate it. Spend less than you earn. Run your life for gross profit. That means: spend within your means, and don't buy more than you can afford. Manage your finances based on gross profit, not revenue. Never chase or compare yourself with the high-income earners or those who own a lot of stuff. You don’t know what kind of liabilities come attached with it. The value of experiences. Buy experiences, not objects. Yoyogi Park, Tokyo Restful sleep. If the volatility of tens of thousands of dollars per day keeps you up at night, maybe you shouldn’t be managing money. You either get the job done, or not. In the early days of school, we were brought up believing that you get credited partially by showing your calculations and workings next to the answers in some exams, particularly for math and especially when it is the wrong answer. This was done mostly to encourage students who did not get the right answers, but showed effort in trying. In the working world, right answers are everything. Results drive everything. Stephen Schwarzman illustrates this aptly during his guest address at Yale where he shared his experience working at Lehman Brothers [start watching from 48:20]: "In the real world, there is only one grade for every project... which is an equivalent of an 'A' grade. And the definition of an 'A' isn't the same as in academics. In academics you can get an 'A' sometimes with a 90, sometimes with a 92, a 93... and that's sort of pretty good. In our world, an 'A' is a 100. This was shocking to me, because I wasn't an 'A' kind of person..." - Stephen Schwarzman Don't justify how hard you are trying to your clients or bosses. Stop complaining about how much work you have put in. No one is coming to pat you on the back or give you a gold star for your effort. No one cares, get over it. You either get it done, or not. That's it. What really matters. You matter only to the people who genuinely care about you. If you drop dead tomorrow, your line manager will posthumously say a few words of thanks and condolences, and then proceed to hire your replacement the very next day. You only matter to your company and your colleagues as far as economics go. Be that as it may, so easy to say, harder in practice. Reputation. So much depends on reputation, guard it with your life. Law number 5, from the book “ 48 Laws of Power ”. One of the most important things to a man is his reputation. Negotiation. When negotiating, remember that Nassim Taleb says: "What matters isn’t what a person has or doesn’t have, but what he or she is afraid of losing." Trust your gut. If you do something and find yourself awake and unable to sleep at night, with a nagging feeling in your chest or gut, it probably means that whatever you are doing is posing a threat to something of great importance to you, or is conflicting with your core values deep inside. Whatever that is, stop doing what you are doing. And the next time you do anything, remember that nagging feeling. At the end of the day, you are only accountable to yourself when you wake up in the morning. Be less judgmental. Don’t impose your moral high ground and standards on others in terms of what you think it means to be rich, what kind of work they are engaged in or what they say and do. You don’t know what they have gone through or have to put up with. “Some people were born to sit by a river. Some get struck by lightning. Some have an ear for music. Some are artists. Some swim. Some know buttons. Some know Shakespeare. Some are mothers. And some people - dance.” - Eric Roth (excerpt from the movie " The Curious Case of Benjamin Button ") Fat in organizations. Fat accumulates in organizations because most people work on the basis that it is better to follow instructions, even when it is wrong and get paid, rather than to be right and lose your only source of income. To paraphrase a Chinese colloquial saying: Stakeholders are the ones who foot the bill eventually (Also, see number 40 here .) The value of money. Money buys a lot of things, but the most important thing it buys is the option to walk away from everything.

Do not believe anything ever again. It is getting increasingly difficult to educate our kids with more technology today. “So you ask Google a question in whichever language in the world, what did Google answer with? It said, look, there seems to be 104 million sites on those. You can read all of them and make up your mind what the truth is. It's your truth. 2023, you switch on ChatGPT, you ask it a question, what does ChatGPT tell you? One answer. And that one answer is completely positioned as the truth."[1] Google used to be the default when searching basically for anything in the world. You would type a few key words in the search bar and a hundreds of seemingly unlimited entries would show up, allowing you to choose what are the most appropriate results. You get to decide what is right and wrong with a buffet of choices. Today ChatGPT and a host of other blackbox AI-powered agents that claim to be more "efficient" narrows these to a few easy to view and choose options. Machines might have gotten smarter and more precise in being able to guess what the user wants. But that isn't always necessarily accurate or correct. Humans learn more effectively by making mistakes[2], which improves their ability to appraise a situation or be a better judge of character. Errors and pain build resilience and values, allowing us to make wiser decisions. Some go through it more than others. And wisdom is something that tells you to go ahead or hold back on doing something even if most of the indicators show otherwise. Being able to act resolutely in a seemingly irrational sense is not in the rulebook and big data model of machine learning. Just like the news: That one headline event that took place, will come out in varying undertones when published in the Financial Times, SCMP, Straits Times, the Chinese news or any other platform across the globe. Nearly all media is propaganda. And digital media in its various forms (X, Weibo, Telegram, etc) is simply just a more entertaining way of putting ideologies into the minds of the masses. Just because something is widely reported in the media doesn’t mean that it is necessarily the right thing. A kid that watches Instagram growing up as compared to another watching Douyin will be imbued with very different values and perspectives of how the world works. And with technology pushing the limits in virtual reality, it will get increasingly hairy to differentiate what is real and not real. As adults, most of us have had the benefit of accumulating enough scars to know what's good or bad for us, and therefore make informed and wise decisions. When fed with enough propaganda every day, even adults can be persuaded to bend their will and choices. What more can be said of the impressionable minds of kids? These days, with so many avenues of searching for information on the Internet, deepfakes and curated content being pushed to our devices, how do you then train young people to tell real from fake and discern right from wrong? How do you give them enough life experiences at an early age - and not just what they can read off books and the Internet - without permanently damaging their minds, instilling them to think on their feet independently, so that when they grow up and read the headlines or listen to someone talk, they will pause and ask, "Is that really the case?" "Do not believe anything ever again. Because the idea of asking a question and getting one answer for it is by absolute certainty not true." - Mo Gawdat Limitations. Years ago when I was just a young freshly minted investment banker at a social gathering, one of my older friends casually commented, “I am not young anymore and can’t stay up to work the long hours like you guys, I have to sleep before midnight.” - an unnamed friend who was in the forties then Coming from an environment and work culture where all-nighters were worn like a badge of honor and people grab a few drinks after work before getting home after midnight, this was inconceivable. Perhaps more inconceivable was the fact that fast forward nearly two decades today, I still push the hours. Since then, my work has evolved from being somewhat 90% confined to facing the monitor at my desk in Singapore, to mostly city-hopping, meeting and talking to people, while working out of hotels and on the move. I am not particularly proud of the long working hours and suitcase life, but these were part of the deal when I took on the job. As hectic as it sounds, I enjoy what I do in general. It was only in recent times that the frequency of falling sick had increased to the point that I start to question the limits of my body and ask, “Is it time to really slow down?” No more executive roles. Regardless of how we define and stereotype the characteristics of each generation of youngsters, the unspoken rite of passage that transcends time and industry is: Newbies and those fresh to the job, will first do the number crunching and leg work before being handed more important stuff. It is a proven way for businesses to manage operational risk. Call it modern day apprenticeship. This is similar to how food recipes are handed down across generations, just like the 90-year old uncle who makes the char kway teow that people religiously queue up for at the hawker centre in Singapore. When left to a pair of unseasoned kitchen hands, the quality of the char kway teow recipe gets compromised, because no one makes a better plate than the old man himself who adds just the perfect amount of ingredients in every serving. Execution excellence and mastery are forged and nurtured by simply doing something over and over again, for a very long time. But unlike char kway teow, most white collared roles will not expect you to do the heavy-lifting after a certain number of years. In large organisations, some will even consider it criminal to ask a senior person to run execution. The idea is once you push the forties and fifties, the nature of work tends to involve leading from the benches rather than from the trenches. There is a valid argument for succession and redundancy planning, but the main point was: Provide more counsel and less execution leadership. Managing grunt work is best left to the young foot soldiers. I recalled a conversation last year over a working lunch with an ex-senior partner at a top consulting firm. At the peak of his career, he socialised the idea of retiring into a corporate role to his higher up. This was at the onset of his late forties. The response that came back was, “Just remember, there are no more executive roles after your fifties”. And since then, I have kept this religiously in mind at every turn at the workplace. [1] The Sharjah Entrepreneurship Festival: https://www.instagram.com/sharjahef/ [2] "Making mistakes while studying actually helps you learn better" - Science Daily

" Everybody should understand the role of trade. Every country does some things better and worse, and worldwide welfare is maximized when every country does the things that it does best, and cheapest, and then sells them to the countries that need them, which do other things and sell them to other people. That's how trade works. The good news is that the Italians make the pasta and the Swiss make the watches. But if we stop world trade, and the Swiss have to their own pasta, and the Italians have to make their own watches, then people in both countries, arguably, will be a little worse off. ” - Howard Marks on Bloomberg TV [1] There have been multiple narratives on why the current US administration is engaging a war on trade. Many say it all comes down to the huge US$9 trillion fiscal debt due this year, which the government can choose to either pay back or refinance. But refinancing is costly because interest rates are high. So the idea is that Trump announces tariffs -> global trade volumes are affected -> costs go up -> earnings come down -> growth slows. Trump creates a synthetic recession and interest rates come down. Some others say it is to bring back the jobs and manufacturing capabilities to the US.  But doing this means uprooting asset-heavy supply chains. Capex is long-term and relocating manufacturing hubs doesn’t happen overnight. Then there are those who think of the tariffs as a political tool. Get companies to pledge loyalty to the US -> local businesses will lobby to get import concessions -> foreign exporters negotiate bilateral arrangements -> US becomes the superpower of the world again. But no matter how you try and make sense of it, the overall state of global affairs today looks something like this: A thread on X recently written by Tanvi Ratna sums this up nicely: There is also much confusion as to who are paying for the tariffs. The tariff is paid by the importer of the goods, who then in theory, passes the increase in costs to the end consumer. But in reality, things aren't so simple. Exporters who are hard pressed to sell may end up having to reduce their prices, hence indirectly bearing the costs of these tariffs. The pricing dynamics get even more complicated when we start looking across the spectrum from low cost items all the way to high value goods. It might be ok to pay a few more dollars for a pair of jeans but the purchasing considerations might be very different for an electric car. Still, there is little sense in trying to predict what a madman is trying to do [2] , what impact his decisions will have in a complex geopolitical system of moving parts, and how this will play out for global trade and financial markets in the near term. Best to simply just go outdoors take a walk and enjoy the breeze. And to draw some wisdom from Vishal Khandelwal : “Quieten the constant chatter in your mind that may lead you to act all the time, do your work and then, please shut up and wait.” [1] Howard Marks on credit yields and Trump's tariffs, Bloomberg TV - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpnUyGM5M-I [2] "Is Trump playing the mad man?", The Economist - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIeTXYRajhw

We recently completed the test run of a new product as part of a market feasibility study. Despite having seen my fair share of feasibility studies in my banking days, I rarely sit on the opposite end—which is having to really think about putting the outcome of the report into action. But this isn’t quite my first stint at building a new product or entering a new market. In 2016, I had to assemble a conference from scratch, from financing to execution, nearly single-handedly. We later institutionalised the platform, calling it the Asia Investment Conference and replicated as an annual production. I later realised that the banks also had something similar that connected large investors to companies (usually public listed ones) that were looking to raise capital. They called this product “corporate access” and housed it under the equities division. The actual process of testing a new product in the market can be incredibly demoralizing. It’s basically rejection after rejection. In the process of carrying out the market study, I must have stepped on so many toes I wonder if we can truly spin this into a commercial venture. According to aero-propulsion engineering, most of a plane's fuel is burned when it is taxi-ing and taking off , not when cruising in mid air. It takes the most amount of energy for a plane to break that initial resistance, to move, to reach escape velocity and to eventually fly. When building a new product or a new business, all the team members must have the ability to overcome that initial resistance. And the truth is: If you are building anything new, you are always going to face resistance .  The team cannot be complainers. They cannot keep lamenting on the fact that this is a new market, a new product, or that there are simply not enough resources and internal / external support to do whatever they need to do. They certainly also cannot be wasting time putting together slides to explain in ten different ways why something doesn’t work, or why it cannot be done. They neither feel victimized nor do they spend time assigning blame.  They just get it done. There is no room for excuses, because that’s the only way to break that initial resistance, that is all there is to it.

Three years into venturing out on my own, I acquired a new-found respect for many areas in the day-to-day operating of businesses which are presumably overlooked by most people. These include back office functions, human resources, payroll, corporate communications, financial reporting, legal and compliance, sales and marketing to overall general management. A lot of work goes into the creation of a business and even more effort goes into just sustaining it. I believe that all founders go through that same process, though everyone's experience is slightly different depending on product and business size. For some it could be fundraising, human resources, or developing sales channels. I found it useful at this juncture to summarize a few important aspects of the process as a timely reminder. Cashflow. You have to be really ready to be comfortable with very little cash in your bank at some point of time. Everyone’s financial background is different, just make sure you evaluate and prepare yours accordingly. Do something everyday. When you find yourself lost, just keep moving - meet people, read stuff, explain to friends what your business model is about. As long as you move, you’ll learn and get something out of it. When it comes to matters involving shareholding, always respect the money. It can be tough to quantify who contributes more at the onset of any start up given everyone's level of experience, age, capabilities and financial situation. One way to do this is to have everyone commit to an agreed amount of capital to put into the company and split the shareholding based on contributed capital. Even if one party had 20 years more experience over the other doesn't mean the more experienced party deserved a larger portion of the pie. Last drawn pay is irrelevant, only the economics and spirit of the equity injection matter. Take for instance the founding of Blackstone: Pete Peterson and Steve Schwarzman both put in $200,000 of their money and split the shareholding equal ways, even though Pete was held a more senior position in Lehman Brothers. Really have a shareholder agreement. Even a simple one is good, because that gets everyone committed to the business (at least statutorily). Do up a budget. THe idea here is to have some idea of how much expenses will be incurred each month. Everyone usually has some idea of how much is required but once this is inked on paper, it becomes crystal clear in terms of where the largest expenses are going, especially when it comes to manpower, tech spending and travel. Banking and money matters. Where bank and money matters are concerned, as far as possible always rely on joint signatories for check and balances. "Cheerleaders" are good but the will to execute is more important. It is absolutely critical to maintain a encouraging and positive mindset when starting a business, but also equally important to differentiate those who "cheerlead" vs those who actually do the work. The will to execute is probably more important, sometimes even more so than simple idea contribution. Everyone in the boat must paddle. All co-founders must be technically strong and have skillsets which are ideally complementary. No passengers allowed. Resolving disagreements. In pushing a point across or in any disagreement, no one should ever counter an argument by saying “I don’t need this”. Co-founders may never agree on everything, but when the decision is made, everyone must remain fully commited to execution. Trust is important. There is trusting in a person's integrity and also trusting in a person's ability to deliver. Both are important. Trust through years of friendship should not cloud judgement in trusting a person's execution or their ability to deliver. Change and growth. Be fully prepared that your idea and vision of your start up will evolve and change significantly along the way. This is mostly a good thing. Just be mindful and open-minded of the possibility that you could end up with a business that is quite different from what you had set out to do. Share options. Dilute no more than 20% of the company. Founders always need more skin in the game. Then comes the how and when to give share options: Reward those who have contributed to top-line and growth of the business. Here are some suggested guidelines: (i) Contribution to the business top-line (revenue) (ii) Where revenue is irrelevant, evaluate based on overall execution support Never give away equity. Not even to buddies who cheerlead you, period. See point above on respecting the money. Talent. Identifying, sourcing, acquiring and motivating people are ultimately key in growing and sustaining the business. As business owners, always: (i) Lead by example, be hands-on and show the way (ii) Invest in your strongest staff: train them professionally but also develop them personally as individuals (iii) Hire for attitude over aptitude (iv) Always be upfront and honest in your communication All employees will leave the firm one day, but the social goodwill generated during their time at your firm will be intangible and will go a very long way in establishing both you and your company's reputation. Beautiful presentation decks do not win deals. Good ideas, actionable strategies and the executing the plan builds credibility. Good decision making achieves multifold benefits. In making any decision, try to see if it can achieve multiple purposes. Don't undermine the importance of a healthy digital footprint. Anyone who tells you not to publish your background on LinkedIn is smoking you. In today’s digital age, a website, a corporate LinkedIn page and proper email account is almost synonymous with legitimacy. Corporate "mileage" or existence can also be a fairly strong indicator, register your company as early as possible. Stay positive and be comfortable with uncertainty. Complain less, do more. Be comfortable with uncertainty. There is always a possibility that an idea will not work, but if you fail, fail fast and pivot quickly to another strategy that works. Failure is an opportunity to learn. When you make a mistake, just get up and just move on. Otherwise, you may never grow as a person. Failure makes you a humble person, adversity builds character, and makes you a better person. Never victimize yourself. Our strengths and weaknesses are all shaped by our experiences and our will to do things. No one will bail you out from your self-pity and self-limitations. Be solution-oriented. Instead of close captioning the problem at hand, think of ways to solve the problem, then execute it. Make time for sanity, whatever the definition of sanity is to you - chilling over coffee, taking time to travel, spending time with family, etc. No one should work 24-7. At the end of the day even if you make it at the expense of the things that matter most to you, think about it: is it worth it? Keep in mind that everyone draws a pay check is fundamentally an employee. An employee’s mindset is different. Remember this always when you manage staff, work with partners, negotiate with clients and even raising funds from investors. You can learn a lot by working on the day-to-day mundane stuffs. You learn a lot when registering a business, making payments to mandatory employee provident funds, pay suppliers, write invoices and chase for payments. Trade receivables is a very real thing. Working capital and cash collection are some of the most important aspects of any business. When you are on the paying side just remember not to spoil market and always pay your suppliers on time. Take responsibility for your decisions. Good or bad, you are always responsible for the outcomes of your actions. Never look desperate. When fundraising or getting customers, never ever be desperate. Prospective investors and clients can smell desperation. The world works in ways more complex than you can think. Don’t believe everything you see and read. Teamwork is everything. There are no heroes in starting up.

Singapore Airlines posted record net profits for its full year ending 2023 results - "the highest in its 76-year history". This shouldn't be surprising given the effects of inflation over multiple decades and the fact that people tend to be more well-travelled these days, both for leisure and business. Still, it is a spectacular achievement on all fronts, for both the company and shareholders, considering how air travel had been severely impacted by the pandemic. Doomed for bankruptcy. Just think about it: Not very long ago, most airlines had been doomed for bankruptcy when COVID-19 brought air travel to a standstill. People were even mocking at the idea of ordering takeaway cabin food at home, selling SQ-branded merchandise and even flights-to-nowhere . All these seemingly whimsical initiatives were targeted at keeping customers engaged and satisfying the insatiable demands of wanderlust travelers, but most of all, I think it was meant to generate some cash flow, if any. Those flights-to-nowhere were subsequently scrapped due to environmental criticisms from the public but that didn't stop SQ from offering customers a unique dining experience aboard the A350 aircraft (on the ground of course). When the going gets tough, it's not only the bootstrapping start-up companies with the least bargaining power who have to creatively pull ideas out of their a**es. Big companies need to do this as well. When the world surprises the hell out of you and leaves you at the mercy of cash flows, anything and everything goes. Apparently what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Looking back on the last three years, it might be easy to conclude that there is a simple recipe for surviving the pandemic: Stick around long enough, don't die in the process, and things will get better. But simply sticking around understates the numerous organisational and technical complexities that firms have to go through. In the case of SIA, this means re-allocation of manpower resources, deciding which planes to put in long term storage and the costs involved in such an operation (both the tangible and opportunity costs), as well as the means to raise sufficient capital to tide a possibly longer than expected winter . When you are neck-deep in a sticky situation it can sometimes be difficult to see how the longer term picture can play out. Check out these depressing headlines from 2020: Even ECB President Christine Lagarde then in mid 2020 said that the pandemic was probably "past the lowest point" and cautioned that any rebound would be “ uneven ”, “ incomplete ” and “ transformational ” - hinting that some industries such as air travel and entertainment might never recover. Everyone at that point of time certainly has a view on how things could pan out but when the central bank says something, you listen. Timing is everything. Yet even as the effects of the pandemic started to ease, very few companies emerge well from this period of crisis. This is not about hiring competent management to fix operational inefficiencies but the ability to weather a sudden economic shock. Moments like these test the effectiveness of a company's business continuity plan. Fortunately for Singapore Airlines, it also has a unique political and financial backing from state-run Temasek Holdings which not many other firms have. To some extent, SQ is Singapore and Singapore is SQ. This leads to another less obvious factor that has contributed to SQ's record profits. Six months was all that stood between SQ and its closest competitor, Cathay Pacific . That window was sufficient to give any well deserving airline a good head start in cannibalising market share along major competing sectors. If you compare SQ's FY2023 financial performance with the pre-pandemic periods in 2018 and 2019 , operating expenses including staff and fuel costs were almost at the same levels, implying that SQ had likely returned to nearly full operational status. CX on the other hand struggled with mobilising its fleet and dealing with the stubborn re-opening of Mainland China, one of its major revenue contributing segments. When life returned to normal, the dislocation in the supply and demand of air tickets, coupled with the tactical re-opening of Singapore borders six months earlier than Hong Kong / China, was probably what gave SQ the additional bump in profits. Had the Singapore government been slightly slower in its re-opening, we might have missed the boat on capturing tourist arrivals, the perennial fintech festival and numerous MICE events targeting business travelers and conference-goers especially towards the year end. Of course nothing is permanent. Supply pressures will eventually abate which should ease demand and bring down air fares. Unless Cathay Pacific screws it up big time, consumers being consumers will always seek out a variety of airlines to choose from. The key is whether SQ can continue to keep costs under control or will it get complacent from here on. No one likes to be caught with their pants down when a financial crisis hits, but there is no saying for sure when the next one will happen. In an interview with Charlie Rose in 2013, Mike Moritz said of Sequoia Capital: " I think we've -- we've always been afraid of going out of business. ...and so we've worked hard on trying to figure out how we make Sequoia Capital endure. And I think that's been the reason why we've been able to do what we've been able to do. Because we've assumed that tomorrow isn't like yesterday. We can't afford to rest on our laurels. We can't be complacent. We can't assume that yesterday's success translates into tomorrow's good fortune. "

It feels weird to say I'm traveling 'back' to Hong Kong after a business trip. I have spent the majority of my time here for the last 2+ years and there's a certain feeling of familiarity. Yet it feels nothing like going back home in Singapore. It's not a bad thing, just different. Beijing International Airport Whenever I travel, I often think about what it would be like to live in the visiting city. Not for a few days, but for months, and even years. Universities nowadays offer abundant opportunities for students to do this in the form of student exchange programs. It's an invaluable experience of learning to be independent and making more friends. Yet there is a subtle difference. With exchange programs, there is always a finish line. Exchange programs are pretty much like extended holidays with a simple commitment to set aside some hours for study, take an exam at the end of it all, and then go back to the comfort of home with an album full of instagram-able stories. Most who work overseas don't have a clear finish line, unless of course you have been sent there on a secondment with a visible plan of returning after a certain number of years. Unlike school, there is a commitment to deliver and perform in a largely unfamiliar environment. And if your familial and social support is back at home, there is sometimes also little to look forward to at the end of the day. The various circumstances, both external and internal, faced by those who venture abroad, are what makes them more tough and resilient, each in their own ways. People who have been born, bred and work in their home environment, or have assimilated into the indigenous fabric of society with their families may find this difficult to understand. This year marks my third year in Hong Kong. The experience of relocating in the capacity of a working professional, as I sometimes describe to colleagues and friends, comes down essentially to four things: Getting used to living apart from loved ones for an extended period of time Learning to use a second language as the lingua franca Embracing culture - both in the social and business setting Adapting to a new corporate environment or business function Some people adjust very quickly. Young folks and fresh graduates in particular, are almost like sponges , soaking everything up around them when thrown into a foreign place. When you relocate as an experienced hire, the slate is not empty and the "soaking" tends to be a bit slower. But in any case, anyone who has lived overseas for an extended period of time inevitably goes through at least one or more of the above. Each overlapping the other, each influencing the other. Everyone navigates this differently. Whether you are a budding professional or a seasoned hand, whether you are living overseas or starting work in a new environment, one of the most effective ways to get the most out of living in any foreign environment is to fully imbue yourself in the local life. In short: The faster you acclimatise to all aspects of your surroundings, the easier life becomes. " Comfort of home " is the term most people use to describe the country that they were born in. I might live out of a thirty-square-metre space without a kitchen stove or windows that open, but when traveling back from Beijing, Hong Kong is pretty much as good a home as is Singapore. 入港两周年 PS: This week officially marks two years of me residing in Hong Kong.