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I love Shenzhen. Shenzhen Futian Port 深圳福田口岸 I like its wide city roads that are peppered with electric taxis. There are virtually so many electric cars on the street that if one pulls up just next to you at the junction you wouldn’t even realise it’s there. The street layouts, traffic lights and well-paved roads resemble something taken straight out of a Lego model. Well paved roads And there are dozens of cafes that serve up a good coffee as well as numerous shops offering spicy Hunan, Sichuan and Chongqing cuisine. Nanshan district, which is home to China’s tech giants and hundreds of budding tech unicorns has a coastline that somewhat resembles Singapore’s East Coast Park. Commonly known as China’s Silicon Valley, Nanshan is characterised by lush trees and shrubs neatly placed on both sides of its roads. Futian district, Shenzhen Further down the road east towards the Futian district, pockets of greenery weave between towering skyscrapers and mid-century modern styled office buildings. And on some evenings, you can even enjoy the fancy laser light shows against the city skyline with the iconic Ping An Financial Center in the background. Shenzhen light show with Ping An Financial Center in the background Despite its urban backdrop, you can still find traces of history and heritage in the back alleys of the old towns (城中村). This co-existence of old and new is what makes the city unique in its own way, in some ways similar to Shanghai’s Xujiahui district, or Singapore’s Tiong Bahru estate. If not for the Internet restrictions and WeChat Pay / Alipay, the neighbourhoods do not even feel like China but more like an adapted version of Hong Kong. Huanggang cun (皇岗村) in Shenzhen amidst the Futian city skyline This is just Shenzhen. In close proximity are at least seven other cities in the Greater Bay Area with a similar profile. Each with its own distinctive heritage, each bubbling with its own economic engine, each liveable in its own way, each with the potential to displace Hong Kong as the new regional powerhouse, if not for Hong Kong’s legacy infrastructure and position as an international financial hub. Some might even say this is the dark side of the Greater Bay Area initiative. Source: BBC If you are a frequent traveler to Hong Kong or reside in the city like me, there is a noticeable quietness in Central, which is traditionally home to all the big banks and funds. Even being in Singapore recently, there is an observable contrast to Singapore’s Marina Bay city centre. Standing at the lobby of the Marina Bay Financial Center, you can even feel the difference in energy level and vibe. Singapore's Marina Bay city skyline Part of the quietness in Hong Kong is also attributed to the out flows of travellers across the border. Hundred thousands of people flock to Shenzhen on a daily basis from Hong Kong. Coffee for one is significantly cheaper in Shenzhen. It’s on average RMB 28 vs HKD 45 for a flat white depending on where you get your daily grind. At some cafes such as Manner Coffee, flat whites are going for only RMB 18, and the quality of coffee is no less than decent. Eating in Shenzhen is generally much cheaper as well, not to mention the good variety of both Asian and Western cuisines. Chinese food (all kinds) is undoubtedly more authentic in Shenzhen, no question here. Also, you can get cheap food and groceries delivered to the doorstep at basically any time of the day. The gig economy is extremely vibrant. Meituan is incredibly accessible and affordable compared to Deliveroo or Foodpanda in Hong Kong. Those who struggle with the high rents and suffocating spaces in Hong Kong are finding it attractive to stay in Shenzhen while continuing to work in Hong Kong, putting up with the 1+ hour commute. Bloomberg even has a report on this. Truth be told, Shenzhen is even more accessible than you can imagine. There are abundant car pools, buses, even the East Rail Line (东铁线) on the Hong Kong MTR goes directly to Lok Ma Chau and Lo Wu in under 60 minutes. If you are impatient, there is always the 15-minute high speed rail option departing from the West Kowloon station in Hong.Kong. The East Rail Platform at Admiralty I have tried them all and the journey (even passing through immigration with a passport) is seamless, despite the crowds and rush hour. Hong Kong should in theory, benefit economically from this flow of people within the Greater Bay Area. But this has been disproportionate, with more people traveling out of Hong Kong in recent years to spend on entertainment and retail across the border. Once known as the “promised land” for doing business in China, Hong Kong has been haemorrhaging capital and resources. The big bucks and high life that people used to be drawn to 10 to 20 years ago do not exist anymore. There are lingering doubts as to whether it is still possible to make good returns from investing in China using Hong Kong as a springboard. Affluent residents are spending meticulously, but are also more careful about flaunting their wealth. I think the music started to slow in 2019 with the protests, followed by COVID restrictions which really broke the camel’s back. Decades of growth and reputation unwound in just a couple of years. These are indeed delicate times. The firms that used to be paying top dollar have moved out or relocated their bases elsewhere. If people are not earning the top dollars, they simply won’t be spending, whether it is dining out, partying or buying property. And no consumption simply means no economic growth. No wonder Thailand and Philippines are jealous about Taylor Swift’s exclusive performance in Singapore, which quite inadvertently channelled tourist arrivals, entertainment and retail activity away to the little red dot. More than just its Canto-pop concerts, Hong Kong needs a “Taylor Swift event” to bring back the buzz and hype to the city. [Photo credits: mine]

In 2015, following the completion of a USD 2 billion cross-border deal, I was invited on a Saturday morning to share some of the learning points and takeaways from that transaction in an academic setting. As point person on the deal, I was responsible for steering most of the conversations that took place. This included translating, proposing negotiation strategies, facilitating the discussions and at times managing emotions on both sides of the table. I vividly remember on one of the nights (I think it was probably around 1am), sitting in the client's office finalizing the deal documents when we received a competing bid on the deal. It was a turning point whereby we had to decide whether to jettison everything. On hindsight having completed that deal, I felt that the most important aspect in that whole process was: " If both sides are motivated to get the deal done, it will be done. " Everything else doesn't really matter. Seven years on, the complexities in deal execution still never cease to amaze me, that is probably why investment banking had been such an interesting career. Here are some additional learnings that I've consolidated below: (1) An issue only needs to be dealt with as long as the biggest stakeholder and/or someone important thinks so. (2) All transaction processes have unprecedented bumps and disagreements of sorts from fees to valuation, but a good negotiator knows how to play both sides of the game . (3) The drafting of most agreements is effectively a process of managing risk , less so of governing commercial interests, especially when everyone is convinced that the pie is big enough to be shared equitably. People only start to fall back on and scrutinize these documents when shit hits the fan. They are really just a formalised set of what-ifs and everyone hopes they won't ever have to re-look at these contracts when stuff blows up. (4) Following on the above, the essence and spirit of most agreements are in reality like guidelines . If no real harm is caused, any violation could simply warrant a slap on the wrist. The contract basically gives either party the legal right to punish the other party if real harm has been done. At the very bottomline, it’s all about whether interests are being thrown into jeopardy and the money, really. (5) MOUs and term sheets - while legally non-binding in nature - are important. They are an essential framework to help guide the drafting of the final legal documents. When done properly, they eliminate ambiguity and misunderstandings, enabling both parties to save a lot of time in the documentation phase (which ironically, is not in the interests of lawyers who are billed on time). That said, there will inevitably be blind spots in the negotiations. The proverbial devil is always in the details . (6) Engage a lawyer that: doesn’t think like a lawyer can dumb down complex legal concepts is able to articulate the consequences of certain nuances within the agreements can provide constructive solutions to resolve conflicts (7) Home-ground advantage has a cost. When you are holding the pen on drafting, expect to incur higher costs - both on expenses and time. That said, you do have some upper hand when it comes down to dictating the overall flow and structure of the agreements. (8) On the point of flow and structure, depending on which side of the table you are sitting, the drafting of nearly all documents generally comes down to two approaches: “ You can do everything , except for the following... ” “ You cannot do anything , except for the following... ” (9) Some lawyers provide maps (legal opinions), some lawyers will be your guide and chaperon you for the journey (legal advice). You will need to decide whether you need a map or a guide. Legal opinions don’t protect against anything, it serves only as an ‘expert opinion’ on outlining the risks and enforceability of key aspects in the transaction. Decision makers who cannot navigate the nuances in a cross-border deal or have no meaningful way of controlling the risks in a deal fall back on the ‘tightness’ of a legal opinion. Good legal advice on the other hand will tell you where the pot-holes are, the hidden corners, why you should take certain routes instead of short cuts, etc. It goes a step further, implementing the mechanisms to clearly define and safeguard relevant risks and commercial interests. (10) The closing phase of any documentation process is almost as important as the drafting and negotiation phase.

The picture speaks for itself.

I stumbled upon a photo of an event brochure while browsing my Wechat social media feed one day. It reminded me of how I used to spend hours on end refining the design of our brochures and website for our Asia Investment Conference (AIC) event.  I always made it a point to ensure the formatting and alignment of our collaterals was impeccable. This meant appropriate font faces and font sizes standardized. Yet at the same time, I had been responsible for the production and overall P&L of the event. This meant sourcing, negotiating, and closing sponsors, and making sure that cash flow was in positive territory. Largely because both my money and reputation was on the line. Some might say the time and energy might be better spent talking to more sponsors to bring in more money. If I had a higher up , I think that would have surely been their feedback: “ You should more time looking for sponsorship dollars rather than sweat over curating the perfect speaker rundown or making sure our marketing collaterals are done to perfection.”  It is true. Sometimes the time I spend on aesthetics and event rundown would be disproportionate to the time spent on reaching more sponsors. For example, I would stay up all night just to get our agenda right, get every alignment on the website to perfection, making sure that the theme of the conference and the panel discussions we curated were in sync with the latest trends taking place in the industry.  Marketing and sales were also laborious. But fortunately by the third iteration, we had nearly systemized our execution by using automation and scripts. With just the click of a finger, thousands of email invites would be sent, we would head off to lunch and come back an hour later with easily anywhere between twenty to fifty responses. I would also study our competitors closely. I would analyze their creative pricing strategies, their panel topics, the kind of online ticketing portals that were being used, and think for hours how we could do things better and differently. As a result, every sponsorship closed or ticket sold meant more than simply just dollars. It meant that we had done something right . But I faced many challenging and conflicting moments too. There were always speakers who dropped out at the last minute, rejection emails by sponsors (which were sometimes nasty), sponsors who were willing to pay huge amounts in exchange for bending a panel discussion to their personal interests, potentially throwing our conference theme off-track. Those who paid minimal sponsorship dollars but showed up with more than their allocated share of guests. It was a fine balance of having to preserve and uphold the quality of the turnout, ensuring the panel discussions were relevant to the speakers and attendees, all the while making sure that the overall economics stay above water. Planning... planning... It was difficult to accurately quantify what actually made AIC successful. Was it our unrelenting sales pitches? The rockstar speaker line-up? The obsessive need for perfectly designed publicity materials? The touch of making sure that everything ran smoothly on that day, or the goodwill of friends? Maybe it was a mix of everything. And then the pandemic struck in 2020. The untimely "circuit breaker" brought all face-to-face events to a standstill, effectively crippling our efforts and momentum in assembling the fifth installation of AIC. Even past the aftermath of COVID-19, many of our friends, past attendees, including sponsors had written to me, asking when we were planning to hold the event again. The reply had always been the same: “ we are still evaluating and will definitely reach out once we have firmed up a date ”.  I remain deeply grateful for these people who had reached out personally to give us the vote of confidence. Many had also approached me to restart the event. Some had even offered money to invest. Truth is I had no bandwidth to continue doing this. While we operated on a somewhat “ asset-light ” mode with very minimal manpower, you still needed someone to follow execution like a hawk. Without money on the line and skin in the game, no one would take ultimate ownership and responsibility for the outcome. Yet, if an investor were to put real money into this venture, the Asia Investment Conference might have turned out very differently.  We would have intense weekly catch up meetings to take stock of progress, not to mention monthly milestones and year end targets, doing more events every year by adopting profit-sharing incentives.  There is nothing wrong in taking a good idea or product and bringing it to its full potential. But I think AIC turned out successfully the way it was because every stage of the curation and design process had been painstakingly personal - or at least it had been for me.  The thing is: most of the time, the stakeholders who try to do this often just end up prioritizing sponsorship dollars over making a good product, or they just get caught up in the publicity and social hype, or wind up thinking about how much profit they can reap from selling it in five years. And that exactly is how the good stuff gets killed.

I miss Blatage cafe in Shanghai. It is located in the Pudong new area, approximately 30 minutes by taxi (off-peak) door-to-door from where I usually stay in Shanghai (on the Puxi side). The small cozy cafe is along Binjiang Avenue (滨江大道), twenty minutes by bicycle from Superbrand mall or a 40-minute leisurely walk along the river. This is an extremely therapeutic exercise especially on the spring and autumn weekends. The indoor seating capacity is no more than ten and they serve an excellent flat white for CNY 30. Although situated close to some private homes in the vicinity, there isn't a morning coffee culture where people get up early to grab coffee. I am the cafe's first customer on most days when I arrive at 8 in the morning. View of the 黄浦江 from Blatage Cafe Back home in Singapore, " Blatage " is 40 Hands cafe at Tiong Bahru. A lot of people ask me why I spend so much on coffee when I can use the Nespresso machine and enjoy a cuppa from the comfort of home. Just as people sign up and spend their money on regular yoga classes, I spend mine on ' coffee yoga '. While yoga enthusiasts do stretching exercises to feel good. I indulge myself with sipping coffee. Case in point: a single yoga class ranges anywhere between $15 to $25 while an artisanal coffee is about $6. Just as people find inner peace and tranquility in an hour or so of meditation, I find mine through sitting by the street or in a quiet corner where I am able to reflect and declutter my inner thoughts. Not everyone understands this but everyone do need their own version of Blatage coffee - yoga, religion, travel. Sometimes, there isn't a need to architect a pricey escape into the Himalayas to seek private retreats. A lot of these can be found at your doorstep. 40 Hands - Street View You don’t need to fine-dine in order to enjoy good food. My favourite local hawker fare is the bak chor mee at Tiong Bahru market. You don’t need to own a car to have convenience. Even if I use Grab everyday my traveling commute expenses will probably never exceed $500 a month. And sometimes all you need is to buy a house in the right place with good access to public transportation. You don’t need to stay in a private condominium or landed property to enjoy your spatial environment. You just need the right renovation decor at home. What is the use of real estate if you wear it with a huge financial burden and/or can’t share it with your closest friends and family? You don’t need lots of money to be wealthy. In fact, you don’t even need to prove to anyone that you are wealthy. The wealthiest people are those who are comfortable in their own skin and do not give a f&*k about opinions from the rest of the world.

Finally and for the first-time, I took the high speed rail from Hong Kong into Shenzhen. Going to the High Speed Rail interchange from Austin MTR in Hong Kong Despite the lunar new year festive period, the station didn't seem as crowded as I remembered it pre-COVID. Entry gates at the Kowloon West Station I got my tickets online from 12306.cn, the official site of China Railway for all rail passes in China. I collected the hard copies from one of the counters the day before to avoid any long queues on the day itself. Ticketing gantry Once you pass through the gantry, numerous signboards will prompt you to fill up an online health and itinerary declaration form, which will generate a unique QR code for scanning at the border control points. While there are no swab or PCR tests at this point, you are required to obtain a negative PCR report within 48 hours before departure. e-immigration control point Queues form at the entry gates minutes before boarding En route to the platform... Entering the trains: To a certain extent, this feels similar to boarding the maglev in Shanghai. The cabin is as clean as it gets. and Arriving in Shenzhen Futian Station only just 15 minutes later... The Shenzhen Futian High Speed Railway station And that's it - this post is as short as the journey on the high speed rail.

Come next year on 3 January, I would have clocked three years into my current company. This would also be my longest unbroken stint working at any organization (apart from the one I started). For most people, staying at one company for many years is a given. But for me when I graduated, “jumping ship” (switching companies) was something of a norm , a necessary rite of passage in order to get a significant pay raise or to move up the corporate ladder. That said, my perceptions towards career progression and life overall in general had also changed dramatically over the last 17 years. I had moved (or evolved) from being a relatively young desktop grunt, crunching numbers and producing eye-catching powerpoint presentations at breakneck speed, into a mid-senior management role. With more work experience, I am called upon to show up at meetings either because I am a subject matter expert in a particular area, or simply because the ratio of grey hairs to black hairs on my head is higher than average (I like to think that it is due to the former). They say you can only appreciate most of the learnings in life once you have clocked sufficient mileage. I have had my share of experiences, both the good ones and the bad ones. I have pulled all-nighters at work, got promoted at work, take part in at least one billion-dollar transaction, sat and moderated a number of interesting M&A negotiations, seen corporate re-organisations resulting in teams being shuttered, getting laid off, laying people off, watching people get laid off, etc. I am not particularly proud of some of the things I've done, including sacrificing a lot of my personal time for work, but for good or for bad, it has made me the person I am today. When I was younger in my career, I had looked towards those who were older (presumably have clocked more mileage than me) for a professional role model - both the positive and negative examples. I learned that there isn’t one perfect epitome of a successful person. I have had colleagues who leave the office promptly at 6pm, pulling off a sustainable work-life balance (defined here as getting off work on time). And then there are also those who are religiously back at the office every weekends regardless of family. I have had seniors who were extremely competent in execution but suck terribly at management. Some were nice people but couldn’t execute. Some use looks to get by. Some put in the gruelling hours to prove their worth. Each of their characteristics were unique in a homogeneous and somewhat brutal environment, which makes understanding them both interesting and complex at the same time. And people being complex creatures, are what makes them interesting. But then again, at the end of the day, who decides if they should be deemed successful ? As I grew older, I realised that these hallmarks in which we define how well we do in life increasingly deviates from the professional workplace and quantifying the material possessions. But to say this assumes that we have been lucky to be able to earn well - well enough to get by in life comfortably, keeping the lights on, and putting food on the table. There are many other aspects that we consistently take for granted such as a happy family, your parents, your siblings, kids, friends you can rely on, good health, and for some, the ability to travel overseas at whim, and perhaps quite importantly, the peace of mind. No amount of money can buy any of these. But life will occasionally throw you a wrench to test how far you would stray from the path to give up on any of these, and if you had subconsciously forgotten the most important things around you. You can listen to anyone's experience and draw conclusions on how you should live your life and solve your problems. But at the end of the day, everyone’s position is different, and you bear the consequences of the decisions you make solely by yourself. Because what works for one person may not work for another. Many of life’s lessons and takeaways don’t need to be drawn from the advice and anecdotes of other people. It just comes from a position of inner peace and self-realisation.

Whenever I approached the close of my financial modelling course, I always did a simple roll-call to call for feedback from everyone in the class. This time, instead of recycling this common practice, I decided to try out a different approach by using Mentimeter and getting everyone to input three keywords on how they felt about the last two days, and this was the result: A million followers can't be wrong. One of the key aspects of financial modelling is being able to accurately project cash flows. This has consistently been a perennial question that comes up - " how do we do it? ", " How do we know that the numbers are reliable? ", and of course the occasional remark from the seasoned industry veteran: " the assumptions are too conservative, I think it should be much higher! " Subject matter experts and experienced professionals who have been in the game for a long time play an influential role in terms of how we rely on an estimation of the future. In today's context - given the speed and digital pervasiveness of information - the loudest person in the room can also sometimes be easily misconstrued an industry thought leader. “Facts can be so misleading, but rumors, true or false, are often revealing." - Colonel Hans Landa [Inglorious Basterds] Before we had the TV, email and newspaper, people relied on word-of-mouth as their primary source of information. Casual banter amongst households within proximity was how we passed the word around. There was usually nothing lost in translation and no one usually questioned its legitimacy. That playground of information is so different today. Part of how we receive information today has evolved to include social media channels, such as Twitter and LinkedIn. We no longer need to hear information directly from the proverbial horse’s mouth. It is incredibly easy to be swayed by the opinions of the majority, albeit online or offline. After all a thought leader with a million followers can't be wrong right? But the key is in " carefully curating our sources of knowledge so that we are able to get down to what is true regardless of how many other people want to believe it. And that means doing the work. ” “Be wary of self-proclaimed and crowd-proclaimed experts. It’s less likely that experts will be mimetically chosen in the hard sciences (physics, math, chemistry) because people have to show their work. But it’s easy for someone to become an overnight expert on “productivity” merely because they got published in the right place. Scientism fools people because it is a mimetic game dressed up as science." - Luke Burgis The process is more important than the outcome. In my opinion, projecting cash flows requires more imagination than hard core quantitative and technical skills. Valuation and financial modelling is in reality part art, part science . In fact I would even go further to say that a large part of it is art , since the desired outcome is almost always based on creatively imagining what the future beholds. The narrative , so to speak, is as important as the numbers. As Yuval Harari puts it: "A person who wishes to influence the decisions of governments, organizations, and companies must learn to speak in numbers. Experts do their best to translate every idea into numbers." And so, the process of constructing a financial model tries to achieve this. I often get asked if I could provide excel templates for a variety of sectors that people could use to just work off, punching in the inputs to generate the valuation output. Unfortunately, I don’t think it works that way. The real value in any financial modelling exercise is not the result it produces, but the mental exercise that you have to go through in order to produce a functional three-statement spreadsheet of intricately connected moving parts. This is probably the same parallel why people run marathons - not to get from point A to point B but more so the journey, the process of having gone through first hand and pain of completing 42.195km and that personal feeling of having achieved something at the finish line. That sensation means something different to everyone. The financial model is then a representation of what you think of the business and possibly how you see it evolving over time. In the hands of another person, the assumptions and results might look very different. As Warren Buffet once said: "Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster but they tell you nothing about the future." The value of a digital monkey. Going back to the narrative, the valuation exercise seems to be always all about that magic number and the story behind that number. It is easy to play around with numbers , crunch the numbers and as a lot of bankers say - massage the numbers. Data is widely available nowadays with the Internet and relatively cheap access to some proprietary information. Stories on the other hand are a reflection of the founder/CEO’s ambition or the company’s vision of the future. In the digital world, social media has also increasingly found its role as a facilitator of information (reliable or not), and does an incredibly good job of amplifying stories. Just look at GME's share price performance... This boring brick and mortar retailer was reportedly shuttering stores in 2019 and went into a semi-crisis when revenues plunged in 2020 . Yet, its share price defied everything the numbers were saying, becoming a cultural sensation on social media. If you looked at Lehman Brothers' balance sheet back in 2008 they actually had "one of the strongest capital and liquidity positions the Firm has ever had" . But the story unfortunately went sideways, souring sentiments very quickly, resulting in its shocking collapse, disregarding whatever the snapshot fundamentals and numbers were showing. Cryptocurrencies and NFTs are also classic examples of how story-telling has manifested in valuation. There is almost no means of proving why a digital image of a monkey could be worth thousands of dollars. There is also no real use for a digital monkey, and therefore, no way of doing a meaningful DCF valuation. NFTs are simply worth what they are because people say so and because people want it. So, you can’t model sentiment and emotion in a spreadsheet. You also can't do an analysis of the cost-benefits on waging war for national security. Neither can you put a price tag on human relationships. The numbers simply won’t stack up. "The concept of economic value is easy: whatever someone wants has value, regardless of the reason (if any), and its value is higher the more it is wanted and the less there is of it." - Per Bylund Storytelling for what it is, is a persuasion exercise to galvanise interest and sell something - an idea, a product, a call to action. But it remains effective only to the extent others believe and identify with it. Any story becomes instantly more believable if there is sufficient information and that the anecdotal evidence provided is relatable by the other party - which explains also why investor targeting strategies are different for retail punters and large institutional buyers. Without connecting the numbers to a story, projecting cash flows simply becomes an emotionless exercise of numbers.

(In the spirit of celebrating national day...) If there was ever a modern day HBS corporate case study that highlights the resilience of Singapore firms, Singapore Airlines (SIA) might just make the cut.  About just slightly over a year ago in May 2023, SIA reported highest ever net profit in its 76-year history , outperforming its long-time competitor in Hong Kong, Cathay Pacific (CX). Like the onset of COVID which has been widely seen as an 'unprecedented' occurrence, this unprecedented performance could also be attributed to the timely confluence of various events - the restarting of global travel, abolishment of hotel quarantines, Singapore’s re-opening to the rest of the world, while Hong Kong continued to suffocate under mostly closed doors. You can attribute this to the strong branding of Singapore’s flagship carrier, or its creative and fast response towards cost-cutting by putting a part of the fleet in cold storage, offering up meals in the air , or the ironclad financial backstop by parent company Temasek Holdings when the company embarked on its fundraising spree in 2020 to stem the cash bleed.  There are possibly a dozen other reasons, but one simply cannot ignore that these circumstances - both internally and externally - have facilitated the emergence of SIA as one of the champions from the pandemic. That was nearly two years ago. Since then, the world has re-opened and life as we know it has mostly returned to normal. But financial markets and the current state of the global economy are now paying the price for cheap money used to cushion the economic impact of COVID-19. The volatile state of geopolitics has also been putting a drag on growth.  In Asia’s largest market, cracks have also started to form for a while. Unemployment data in China remains stubbornly high, debt-ridden property developers are still in a process of unwinding, there is also diminished spending on luxury items across the board, significant pay cuts within the finance sector, and not to mention the outflows of foreign capital. Even policies around trade have increasingly become a weaponized tool for statecraft.  Investors and market watchers seem to be waiting for a rude ‘wakeup call’.  Maybe something must be broken, such as a market crash, or a big recession, before things finally (and hopefully) start to get better. The more important question perhaps is: for how long more? Even Hong Kong, a key financial center for China and once touted as the go-to hub for IPOs in Asia, have also fallen victim to the exodus of investors. And just like how SIA overtook CX when it bounced back from the pandemic, the biggest beneficiary of this outflow of investors seems to be Singapore. Just last week, MAS announced that a team had been assembled to “strengthen the equities market development” in Singapore as part of boosting the city’s position as a choice destination for equities investors. Aside from incentives, this initiative also includes amongst others, the establishment of more financing vehicles, corporate structures, share classes, encouraging research coverage, as well as fostering greater engagement with private and public stakeholders within the capital markets ecosystem. For years, the Singapore Exchange has been beleaguered by poor liquidity and the quality of its listings.  Based on a PwC report , in 2023, only 7 companies went public in Singapore as compared to 73 and 79 in Hong Kong and Indonesia respectively. Over that same period, both Hong Kong and Indonesia had also raised US$ 5.94 billion and US$ 3.55 billion respectively from the IPO of companies.  By comparison, Singapore as a listing destination had raised only US$ 0.03 billion, a miniscule fraction of the nearly S$ 900 billion of assets managed by private equity, venture capital and hedge fund investors in the city. Combine this with over S$ 800 billion in deposits from the commercial banks , this in theory should present an opportunity to mobilise at least SGD 1.7 trillion of retail and institutional capital, direct some of it towards public growth capital for Singapore companies, and in the process, re-igniting the sleepy equities market. As long as China remains an economic powerhouse in the region, Hong Kong’s position as the center of Asia’s equities markets will be difficult to replace. But there is a silver lining. Singapore can benefit from companies looking to diversify their business outside of China or use it as a springboard for markets in Southeast Asia. We have a unique window of opportunity.  Much like how SIA had turned itself around in 2022, if we play our cards well today, Singapore’s equities market might have a fighting chance to capitalize on this current trend to re-invent itself as a winner within the region.

The concept of retiring early has always eluded me. Recently I decided to look at this from a mathematical and slightly whimsical approach just to see how the numbers add up. The results were interesting and the findings led me to do up a table calculating the annual salaries in each year starting from the age of 24, which is the average age at which one graduates from university, right up till an arbitrary retirement age of 55 (I assumed that past 55 years old, one increasingly finds it difficult to obtain gainful employment.) At age 24, starting with a monthly salary of S$ 3,000, I applied an annual wage increment of 3.0%, which is more or less in line with the headline inflation rate. The conclusion: Upon reaching the onset of the forties - more specifically - at forty years old , it will basically require approximately ten years to recover all the income that you have earned cumulatively over the last 16 years i.e. roughly equivalent to two thirds of the time taken. Of course this simple abstraction trivially excludes any bonus payments received throughout the years, which can significantly accelerate this. Also, not all wage increases follow the headline inflation. For example, getting promoted into a more senior position with added responsibilities typically comes with a bigger jump in pay, or sometimes even a multiple increase over current income levels. It is also common-place to see double digit percentage increments when jumping between firms and in some cases, even sign-on bonuses. But you get the point. In some ways, applying a 3% wage inflation over one's useful economic life seems a tad conservative and over-simplistic. Even for non C-suite positions, moving between grades typically involves a huge bump in salaries. So I decided to take it up a notch and model this using the pay progression in the consulting and finance industry, benchmarking this against what I recall from the Big Four accounting firms. The chart looks something like this: The duration to "equalize" your cumulative income earned comes down significantly once you hit your mid thirties and beyond. With decades of experience on your back, it will basically take you only half the time  required to obtain the same aggregate amount of income earned since you graduated - assuming you graduated at age 24. Again this excludes any ex gratia  payments along the way and significant pay bumps attributed to taking on more responsibilities on the job. Clearly, the golden years of making money comes during your late thirties. Extending this beyond the age of 40 makes this observation even more pronounced: At age 40, assuming your salary remains stagnant at $15,000 a month, it’ll take you only about 6 to 8 years to recover all the income that you have earned over the span of your economic life since graduation, again excluding any ex-gratia payments. In fact, many high performers in this age bracket consistently generate incomes well in excess of this amount, exponentially accelerating this process. One can see the obvious conclusion here. The pursuit of excellence often comes with expensive price tags, to the point where it will even feel like you are trading your waking hours for money. But the good money comes later in life. If you happen to be in your twenties, it is important to nurture a ' superpower ' and be extremely good at what you do, even if it doesn’t pay well in the short-term. Work can be a drag. But by giving up too early and 'retiring' at 40, you risk leaving behind a lot of money on the table.

My maiden Carousell transaction. The attempt of communicating with the seller led me to discover a new estate in Singapore.

Nearly everyone I know who started out in banking or private equity had the goal of a five figure monthly salary in mind, or being able to buy a home at an early age, take leisurely trips around the world, shopping at whim. It was this idea of financial freedom that caught us. No need for a billion dollars, just enough to live life on our terms. If you extrapolate that income over a period of say 7 to 10 years, it is easy to see how that could be possible. When you are a twenty-something year-old looking at someone else in their late thirties or forties working in the same career as you, it can be extremely easy to be disillusioned into thinking you can do this forever. But life is often never that straight. Pulling the hours and all nighters for that long a time can be both mentally and physically exhausting. It comes with the sacrifice of personal time, family and friends. Most people are oblivious to how much you have to give up (and put up with) when you work almost 7-days a week, go home past midnight and never see your family and friends for extended periods of time - all for that juicy bonus at the end of every year. Then there is also that temptation of starting a business, or a side gig, open a shop or something like that. After all what is the use of earning the big bucks when you can’t get to be your own boss one day? Some of us would go on to invest a part of that income into either public equities or the private markets. Both pathways requires staking a significant portion of capital. The lucky ones got out alive and sometimes with a decent profit. But there are also those who unfortunately come out with losses on the other end. Either way, statistically, it always seem to play out to the same result: We continue struggling to keep the lights on and do the jobs we do in order to justify our aspirations and lifestyles, whatever that may be. If you are a smart guy, you’ll figure the right time to get out before the hamster wheel consumes you. After all, the whole point of why we got into the high paying jobs was because it was always more than just about amassing money, correct? Life beyond wall street David Rubenstein, one of the co-founders of private equity firm, Carlyle, has his own talk show where it would seem that he is having a ball interviewing leaders and celebrities globally and from all walks of life. Both Steve Schwarzman (Blackstone) and Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) have turned to writing memoirs to share their collective experience and wisdom from doing business over the years. Andrew Ross Sorkin, no doubt a much younger chap and has a somewhat parallel career to Wall Street, has made his name both as a successful finance journalist and producer of TV show, Billions. Recently, one of my younger friends also highlighted to me that even the chief of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, has apparently also started his own gig as a DJ. While they are not the best examples (primarily because they are either in the celebrity realm or billionaires), it demonstrates that there is possibly an alternative life beyond Wall Street. And everyone who has made it in some way or another, finds self-fulfilment in doing something either unrelated or tangential to finance, publicly or in the private domain. Professional decline When you are in your twenties, you spend most years in the accumulation of cash. If you are the ambitious type, you might even set your sights on climbing the corporate or industry ladder. You work all-nighters and pump nitro just to get there. By the time you reach the thirties and touching forty, and if you are lucky enough to have some credentials, you find yourself in a nice position whereby you can capitalise on the knowledge, experience and the resources. It is relatively easy to earn well from here on, but also just as easy to get caught up in workplace politics and corporate re-orgs. You are a high-cost resource treading on a thin line and might find yourself working twice as hard just to justify your existence. It’s a never-ending cycle of work and more work. Many years back, a friend sent me this article titled “Your Professional Decline is Coming Sooner Than You Think”. It talks about how high performance individuals often struggle personally for many years past their prime. And it is important that we start to think about what comes next when the music starts to slow down. I have kept re-reading this article from time to time over the years, not because I’m not getting any younger, but more as a reminder of the fact that we are not invincible forever. We have been taught to plan our careers upon graduation but no one ever mentions about how we should plan the second good half of our professional lives, and that, I think, is important. [1] https://www.washingtonian.com/2017/10/26/david-rubenstein-become-tv-star/ [2] "King of Capital" chronicles the story of Blackstone; and Ray Dalio's "Principles" [3] https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/01/billions-showtime-andrew-ross-sorkin-brings-wall-street-drama-to-tv?srsltid=AfmBOooCOenxowMUUnVx_3iMzYbMnozD4mAUknV6YLLXNVLFq6BMQwsB [4] David Solomon ended his gig as a DJ in 2023 after being flagged by the board as a potential distraction from his main work. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/oct/17/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-dj-gigs-d-sol#:~:text=1%20year%20old-,Goldman%20Sachs%20CEO%20David%20Solomon,gigs%20due%20to%20media%20'distraction'&text=The%20music%20has%20stopped%20for,him%20from%20his%20main%20job.

Learning, knowledge and staying up to date with the news and what's going on in the world is your own personal responsibility. The same goes for your health. Nobody was ever hired into a smooth sailing job. You were hired to fix a problem or to clear up a mess. Take the cheapest and happiest mode of transport wherever possible. Never look down on anyone because of what they do or where they are from. Usually, no one is incompetent. Everybody is good at some things and bad in others. Some people are just placed in the wrong places at the wrong time. Work hard, but make time for adventure every now and then. Have faith - even if you feel victimised. Over-deliver, don’t over-promise. Let making a great product be your primary focus rather than try adjust your output and deliverables based on dollar and cents paid. Optimism almost always triumphs pessimism. The change in mindset is usually all a matter of crossing a thin line or seeing a whole new perspective. In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing. Take responsibility for your own decisions and actions. Embrace both the good and bad things that happen. Never compare with others, thinking that they were lucky or fortunate. You make your own luck. Pursue work excellence with a balance. Life is full of bad decisions, screw up and then just move on. Never show a black face unless you have to. Impulsive anger and frustration may come back and bite you. Rather than being annoyed, be amused. Instead of getting angry, become curious. In place of envy, feel admiration. Don't let success get to your head or failure get to your heart. Prove the doubters right by making mistakes, before proving them wrong in the long run. Avoid the “fake it ’til you make it” belief and focus only on making it. Wake up earlier than others. Talk about ideas, not people. Put in more than you get in return at first. Stick to a strict schedule, even if it makes less time for excessive fun and relaxation. Support the success of others, rather than hoping they fail. Sacrifice your social life and weekends. Admit you need help and ask others for guidance. Accept insecurity and fear as unavoidable emotions. Do what others would say is an impossible task, without making excuses or feeling like a victim. Get up after getting knocked down, stronger and more prepared than before. Smile at the people who doubt your abilities. Material possessions are overrated. Own less. Focus on the things that really matter. Success is a lifestyle not a result.